看到就想罵娘！美國科技股和中國在美科技股今年漲得驚鬼神，麥格里：有泡沫嗎？敢買嗎？

看到就想罵娘！美國科技股和中國在美科技股今年漲得驚鬼神，麥格里：有泡沫嗎？敢買嗎？

世界真是又中國和其他組成的！每當看到美國科技股大漲，甚至中國在美的科技股也大漲，而在中國創業板的所謂科技股跌得屁滾尿流的時候，就想TMD罵娘！

凌通社

5分鐘前：

看看阿里巴巴吧，當時發行價68元，後來漲到100左右的時候，所有人包括阿里的很多員工都覺得到天花板了，小編的好幾個哥們當時套現了，還有好多阿里哥們甚至是套現走人了。但沒有人想到，憑藉馬雲出色的忽悠和真金白銀的業績，加上美國科技股漲勢如虹，現在看200元了！

馬化騰也是如此，記得馬化騰前幾年還一直在為了家庭而減持呢，幾年股票卻漲的渾天黑地的。估計馬化騰現在也有一些後悔吧，要是現在套現，起碼可以多捐很多兒童了。

回頭看看代表中國科技的創業板！什麼狗屎東西啊，幾大忽悠樂視網、什麼風電、什麼科技的、什麼信息的，現在看來全他媽的是騙子。

凌通社

5分鐘前：

前幾天和中科院的一位領導聊天，談起中國的科技，這位領導也是深感有加，大部分都稱不上科技，比如某大基因，主營第一的來源是中國煙草、然後就是生育檢測，有個屁科技啊，還有很多你現在不能證偽，起碼現在不可能達到的東西，比如科大訊飛，人工智慧概念牛B的一塌糊塗，但主營是什麼呢？盈利基本依靠國家補貼，和個寄生蟲一樣。還有各種過年，超導、石墨烯、量子通信，反正什麼都有，就是沒有真的科技。這就是為什麼同樣叫做科技，美國大漲中國狗屎的原因。

太不高興了！中國科技股超過了FANG

作為中國人中國股民，最不高興的這些中國股票都在美國漲的厲害。

在美國上市的中國科技股中，陌陌(45.99, 1.94, 4.40%)、京東(47.56, 1.16, 2.50%)和阿里巴巴(158.84, 5.51, 3.59%)今年都已經漲超80%，高於Facebook(171.98, 2.36, 1.39%) 49%的漲幅。而Facebook是FANG中表現最好的個股。FANG指的是Facebook，亞馬遜(992.27, 4.69, 0.47%)、Netflix(181.33, 1.06, 0.59%)和谷歌(929.36, 1.40, 0.15%)母公司Alphabet，這些股票大幅上漲，主導了美國股市的漲幅。今年以來，美國科技股依然是市場領先者，上漲23%，是標準普爾500指數中表現最好的行業。 然而，中國科技股的漲幅較美國科技股翻番。以人民幣計價，MSCI中國信息科技指數今年上漲了56%。

網路券商E-Trade的高級經理David Russell說：「中國是一個崛起中的富裕的經濟體。我們看到電子商務消費者的崛起。」

Russell說：「我們看到阿里巴巴、百度和其他一些公司的交易量都不斷增加。其中，看漲期權被大量使用。」

根據美國期權市場的數據，6月27-30日，京東的平均單日期權交易規模為25606合約。而上周，這一數據跳漲至41632合約。

交易員們上周每天買入16000-54000合約的京東看漲期權，而看跌期權的購買量為6500-13000合約。分析人士表示，中國科技股可能進一步走高，因為其市值小於美國科技股。

阿里巴巴的市值接近4000億美元，而亞馬遜的市值為4780億美元。百度的市值為780億美元，而Alphabet的市值為6480億美元。

這些在期權市場被火熱交易的中概股即將迎來財報。網易(307.81, 3.34, 1.10%)將於本周三公布財報。京東、阿里巴巴和陌陌將分別於8月14日、17日和22日公布財報。

麥格里：有泡沫嗎？回調敢買不？

Disruption of the old and maturation of the new…

? The key topic that is high on investors』 radar screen is whether tech indices are already in a bubble territory and perhaps primed for a major pull-back.

Indeed, concerns are understandable as most technology indices significantly outperformed their respective markets (e.g. MSCI US IT index outperformed broad market by over 11% YTD and ~34% over five years). FANGS delivered an even better return, while some EMs have become excessively dependent on just two or three key tech names (such as Alibaba, Tencent or Hynix).

? While these concerns are legitimate and there could be a pull-back, we do not yet see signs of bubbles; rather we see maturating of IT sector. As the tech sector is disrupting multiple industries, there are also signs of erosion of value and profitability of most conventional businesses. As discussed (here), investors should be careful of companies with what are perceived to be strong brands (Kellogg and Nestle to Danone; Prada and VW to ESPN). Growth of the new and decline of the old go hand-in-hand. Disruption, disintermediation and changes in manufacturing chains combined with stagnant incomes and rising inequalities create opportunities while disrupting existing models. While these trends were evident for more than a decade, the pace is intensifying.

… but is technology significantly over-valued?

? Is tech overvalued? Using the broadest measure (MSCI US IT indexincludes SPX and NASDAQ), current forward PER (~19x) is only marginally higher than for MSCI US (ex Tech). This is worlds away from the dot.com bubble, when tech forward multiple was ~50x vs 18x for MSCI US (ex tech) while Tech sector EV/Sales was ~6x vs market average of 2.5x-3.0x. Today, tech trades at ~3.5x sales vs market at ~2.5x. Considering that it currently earns ROE of ~22% vs market average of 14% and its free-cash flow margin is ~20%, valuations do not appear excessive. While AMZN, FB and GOOGL are more expensive (EV/Sales ~ 5x-6x), these companies have significant net cash and boast FCF margin of ~25% (vs ~9-10% for overall market).

Technology is no longer a dream, but past is overhyped

? When one of the authors was a tech analyst in 』99-『00, tech was a dream with almost non-existent business models. These were days of transition from analogue to digital and the first budding of consumer internet and the world without 『cloud』 or music streaming. The trends were visible but delivery was highly uncertain. It was also a world populated by good conventional companies, with strong brand names and relatively low multiples. It was a world of a dream on one side and solid conventional businesses on the other.

? What a difference 18 years make. Today, tech is disrupting almost every business and generates higher returns than most conventional models. On the other hand, industries from services to manufacturing are steadily losing pricing and brand power (explaining activist investors, frantic mergers and buy-backs). Investors also reside in a world where volatilities must be suppressed and leveraging encouraged; hence cost of capital can never go up. This implies that VCs would continue to be fed zero-cost money, thus facilitating further disruption. We maintain that one should avoid 『pie in the sky』 themes but invest in tech disrupting current businesses. While anything could get overvalued, the question is whether on pullback from current valuations, would investors buy Danone, or Tencent? Our answer is Tencent.

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