體系加成？美球迷熱議後鄧肯時代馬刺防守仍然聯盟最強

美國JRS之聲

體系加成？美球迷熱議後鄧肯時代馬刺防守仍然聯盟最強

How are the Spurs still the best defensive team in the NBA? (self.nba)

仍然是NBA最佳防守球隊，馬刺是如何做到的？

Seriously, how? Last year it was obvious. Kawhi was still the best defender in the league, and Tim was still a very good rim protecting center. Aldridge was also an above average defender last year, along with the always underrated Danny Green.

But this year, I"m confused as to how they"re still on top. They got Pau Gasol, someone who"s never been known for defense and now he"s even older. They have an aging Tony Parker who"s also never been known as a stopper. They lost Duncan (but added Dedmond who looks promising) Aldridge seems to have lost a step entirely, and along with other non-defensive/older additions/players (David Lee, Patty Mills, Manu) they are still somehow the best defense in the NBA.

Is Pop just a master at defense? Are all of the advanced stats/on-off stats regarding Kawhi"s apparent regression in defense wrong? I am seriously confused.

They"re better than even the Warriors who have a DPOY player in Draymond, a great defender in KD, a good defender in Klay, along with Iggy on the bench. Danny is the 2nd best defender on the Spurs now and arguably as good on defense as Klay.

講真，怎麼做到的？去年原因還很明顯。倫納德依然是聯盟最佳防守球員，鄧肯還是個非常優秀的護框中鋒，阿爾德里奇也是個平均水準以上的防守者，再加上常年被低估的丹尼-格林。

但今年，他們仍然是頂級防守球隊，這就讓我蒙圈了。他們有大加索爾，一個在巔峰期也不以防守著稱，現在又年歲漸長的球員；他們有老化中的托尼-帕克，也從來不靠防守吃飯；他們失去了鄧肯（但是入隊了看上去靠譜的戴德蒙）；阿爾德里奇看上去後退了一檔，同時還有其他防守不強/年齡老化的球員（大衛-李，帕蒂-米爾斯，馬努）。在某些角度，他們卻依然是聯盟最強防守球隊。

這一切僅僅是因為波波是防守大師么？還是所有顯示倫納德在防守端退步了的高階數據都錯了？我實在一臉懵逼。

他們的防守甚至比勇士還好。勇士可有著年度最佳防守球員德雷蒙德-格蘭，優秀的防守者杜蘭特，良好的防守者克萊，外加坐在板凳上的伊戈達拉。丹尼-格林是馬刺第二好的防守球員，在防守端可以和克萊歸在一檔。

[–]CavaliersMemesFranco 142 指標 19小時前

Who is pumping out the narrative that Kawhi has been regressing on defense? I don"t get it. Does anyone watch him play?

誰編出了倫納德在防守端退步了的故事？我不明白為什麼要這麼說。就沒人看他打球么？

[–]Supersonicsseeker_of_knowledge 10 指標 18小時前

Did anyone watch those 2 clutch steals the other day. That man is nasty on D. I"m not sure how people are sleeping on the DPOY forerunner"s defense.

有沒有人看到此前比賽的那兩個死亡搶斷？這哥們在防守端就是個老流氓。我不知道面對年度防守球員領跑者的防守表現，人們如何能做到如同裝睡。

[–]soooecyde[S] 26 指標 19小時前

There was that whole debacle earlier in the year that argued than not only Kawhi regressed on defense, but that the Spurs were worse defensively with him on the floor.

在今年早些時候，這種意見可是泛濫成災：倫納德不僅個人在防守端退步，他的出場也讓馬刺防守更差。

[–]CavaliersMemesFranco 76 指標 19小時前

That honestly sounds like the biggest load of bullshit someone could cook up.

San Antonio won"t bring a player in if they don"t buy in on defense, so it starts at roster construction and then you can point to coaching from Pop. The Spurs buy in on defense and play hard. Those are the most important factors. Play hard and play smart.

真誠地說，這聽上去像一個人能扯出來的最大的犢子。

馬刺不會選擇在防守端不投入的球員，因此馬刺的防守從建隊就開始了，你可以把這歸功于波波的教導。馬刺的球員投入防守，比賽努力。這就是最重要的因素，打得拚命，打得聰明。

[–]Kurumster 22 指標 19小時前

People were saying it a lot earlier in the year, shit was grinding my gears. They did it to Whiteside last year too until the advanced stats went in his favor. Too many people talking about players and teams they don"t watch play.

確實此前很多人都說倫納德不行了。路上這般辣雞言論太多，讓我都無法開車。他們去年也這麼看低懷特塞德，直到高階數據向對球員有利的一面演變。太多球迷連比賽都沒看過，就開始對球隊和球員夸夸其談了。

[–][BOS] Jaylen Browngriffin958 1 指標 6小時前

They were using shitty DRPM stats as the be all end all and it really misrepresented his ability

他們總是翻來覆去地引用沒什麼卵用的防守真實正負值數據，而這實在代表不了倫納德的真實能力。

[–][GSW] Klay ThompsonMrVanillaIceTCube 10 指標 15小時前

It"s not actually bullshit, it"s actually a really interesting observation.

NetRtg of 8.4 and DRtg of 95.6 when he"s off the court, NetRtg of 9.3 and DRtg of 103.5 when he"s on the court.

Kawhi makes a defensive impact of -1.6%, Danny Green makes -1.2% (tho idfk how they come up with the FG% to compare the DFG% to).

Here"re the Warriors". Note Draymond and KD"s defensive impacts are about -5% (lol Varejao with the +12%).

Clearly, something weird is going on, cuz Aldridge was at -5.2%, David Lee at -3.0%, and Dedmon at -7.4%. So the Spurs" other defenders are looking like DPOYs, but Kawhi and Danny are looking mediocre. It"s like hockey assists for defense.

防守正負值並不是全然鬼扯，這反而揭示了一個相當有趣的現象。

倫納德不在場時，馬刺每百回合凈勝8.4分，失95.6分。在場時，每百回合凈勝9.3分，失103.5分。

倫納德的防守影響值是-1.6%，丹尼-格林是-1.2%（儘管我特么不知道他們為什麼要把命中率 和防守對象命中率放在一起比較）。

現在來看勇士的。德雷蒙德-格林和杜蘭特的防守影響值都是-5%左右（笑尿我的是瓦萊喬足足有+12%）。

很明顯，有些奇怪的事情發生了，因為阿爾德里奇的數據是-5.2%，大衛-李是-3.0%，而戴德蒙是-7.4%。因此馬刺的這些其他防守者看上去更像是最佳防守球員，倫納德和丹尼-格林卻在數據上平凡無奇。這就像防守端的間接助攻一樣。

[–][GSW] Chris Mullintemp_achil 7 指標 18小時前*

I think the problem is that Pop"s genius has somehow broken all NBA stats.

For a while Kawhi had a negative +/- which doesn"t make any sense.

For a while the Spurs were playing better defense with Kawhi off the court than they were when he was on the court. And there still isn"t that big a difference

Pau Gasol and David Lee have good DRPM numbers

I"m sticking with the conclusion that Kawhi is excellent at defense, but I think we should also acknowledge that Pop is most likely a warlock.

我覺得問題在於波波的機智，在某種意義上讓所有的NBA數據失去了意義。

有一陣子倫納德的正負值是負的，但這一點也不科學。

有一陣子馬刺在倫納德下場時的防守，比他在場時好。儘管這兩者間差別不大。

大加索爾和大衛-李有著好看的防守正負值。

我依然堅持認為倫納德是完美防守者。但我覺得我們也應該把功勞歸在邪惡術士波波的身上。

[–][SAS] Bruce BowenAnachronym 14 指標 19小時前

It"s just one of those things that is so clearly contrary to the reality on the ground if you watch the spurs play basketball. Kawhi is absolutely as good on defense as he has ever been, especially in 4th quarters and overtimes this season. It"s impossible to watch the games and come to the conclusion that Kawhi is playing worse in any respect (offense or defense) than he was playing before. Any statistical anomalies are clearly being caused by the well-explored confounding variables about which many articles have been written.

如果你看馬刺的比賽，那這就是那些明顯和現實背道而馳的事情之一。倫納德的防守和以前比絕不失色，本賽季的第四節和加時賽更是如此。看過比賽，你絕不可能得出倫納德打得不如以前好的結論（不管是進攻端還是防守端）。任何統計數據上的異常，都明顯是由干擾因素引起的。這些干擾因素被研究得很徹底，同時很多文章也都提及過。

[–][GSW] Chris Mullintemp_achil 3 指標 18小時前

I"ve only watched a few Spurs games, but it seems to me like Kawhi is playing more efficiently, def not worse. He"s picking his spots better now, more like LeBron in some ways.

The weirdest statistical thing seems to be that the non-Kawhi units are playing such good defense with at least a few players who are not noted for their athleticism (Manu, DLee, Pau, etc). Any idea what Pop"s magic trick is?

我只看了幾場馬刺的比賽，但對我來說似乎倫納德是打得更有效率了，絕非更糟糕。他的投籃選擇更好了，某種角度上更像勒布朗。

最奇怪的統計數據，大概是沒有倫納德的馬刺打出了更好的防守，同時陣容里至少還有幾個運動能力並不出眾的球員（馬努，大衛-李，大加索爾，等等）。對波波的魔法，有沒有什麼說法？

[–]76ersBirdRights 5 指標 17小時前

it"s actually true if you look at +/-, but the reason is that teams are putting Kawhi"s matchup in the corner or away from the play in general to force a 4-on-4 situation. the reasoning is that the spurs losing Kawhi on defense is more impactful than the offense losing its best wing player. this was the cause of Kawhi"s negative +/- on defense. however, it still doesn"t explain how the spurs were defending BETTER with pau and aldridge on the court and with Kawhi off.

none of this was meant to show that Kawhi was regressing. it was to show that teams were willing to sacrifice their best perimeter offensive player. so in a way, Kawhi is so good on defense that he ends up hurting the spurs defense.

如果你只看勝負值，那無卡馬刺防守更強是對的。但真實原因是對手總愛把倫納德的對位球員放在底角或不參與進攻，從而形成四對四的局面。這樣做的動機是比起在進攻端失去自己最好的側翼，馬刺在防守端失去倫納德的影響要更大。這便造成了倫納德的防守正負值為負。然而，這仍舊不能解釋倫納德不在場而加索爾和阿爾德里奇在場時，為何馬刺的防守更好了。

這完全不是在說明倫納德退步了。這說明的是其他隊伍願意為倫納德犧牲掉自己最好的側翼進攻球員。所以也可以說，倫納德在防守上太出色了，出色到了反而有損馬刺防守的地步。

[–][SAS] Tim Duncanrattatatouille 8 指標 19小時前

I think the issue was that the Spurs were historically great on defense last year, and the metrics used use a priori data. So going from historically great to merely great will look like a regression on defense, even if the defensive ranking is still at the top.

我覺得問題在於馬刺去年的防守是歷史級別的，而衡量球員表現常常會用到此前的數據。於是從歷史級的的優秀到平凡的優秀，這看上去就像是在防守上退步了，儘管馬刺依然在防守上名列前茅。

[–]borgbyte 2 指標 18小時前

That didn"t explain the on/off split, as at the time of the article that was trying to explain the regression Kawhi was somewhere around 108 Drtg on and 99 off whereas the other starters were the exact reverse. It"s possible that Kawhi played with terrible defensive teammates while he is on and the Spurs bring their best defensive unit when Kawhi is off, but unless Kawhi doesn"t play with the starters at all it doesn"t explain why Aldridge and co were having positive splits.

Either way it seems like things have normalize somewhat, though Kawhi is still behind compared to last year that a DPOY is pretty much out of the question.

這不能解釋倫納德在場與不在場的區別， 當時的分析文章試圖解釋的現象是：倫納德在場，馬刺每百回合失分大約108，他不在場卻僅有99。倫納德看似退步了，真正的關鍵卻在於其他首發。有可能倫納德和防守糟糕的隊友一起打球，而他不在場時馬刺又換上了他們最好的防守組合。但除非倫納德完全不和其他首發一起打球，這還是不能解釋為何阿爾德里奇和加索爾在場時表現更佳。

不管如何，似乎一切已經正趨於正常，儘管倫納德仍不如去年，而且最佳防守球員也基本上是拿不到了。

[–][GSW] Chris Mullintemp_achil 4 指標 17小時前

Here is an explanation:

If early in the season, Pop was trying Kawhi out in a bunch of weird, bad-D units with Tony, DLee, Manu etc, to try and see if there was a weird combination where Kawhi"s skill elevated the whole unit"s D. Mostly these failed, which hurts Kawhi"s D rating, but not the other starters. As the season goes along Pop has been experimenting less and going with more coherent, less experimental units and so Kawhi"s stats are going to trend back toward his career averages.

這兒有個解釋：

在賽季初期，波波曾經嘗試過把倫納德放進一群防守糟糕的球員中間，比如帕克，李，馬努，等等。他想找出一個能憑倫納德之力提升整個組合防守的奇怪搭配。大多數這樣的搭配失敗了，倫納德的防守評分也因此被拉低，然而其他首發球員卻不會被影響到。賽季繼續，波波不再做那麼多嘗試，開始使用更具連貫性、實驗意味更淡的陣容，因此倫納德的數據開始向他的生涯平均水平回升。

[–]tsn123456789 20 指標 19小時前*

They have a good system/structure and has high IQ, hard working players who communicate, execute a defensive scheme, make correct rotations, contest shots without fouling (top 10 in FT/FGA), and force teams into low percentage shots (top 5 in efg% against). They have been very good at defending the 3, both in limiting attempts (top 5, might be higher when pace adjusted) and limiting percentage (top 5 in 3pt% against). They"re good at forcing turnover (top 5 in opponent TOV%) and are a top 5 rebounding team. Having Kawhi and Green who can contain the perimeter better than most teams is huge, as very few teams have 3 players who can initiate dribble penetration. LMA is a decent defender. Dedmon is good but he fouls a lot. They also have a fairly balanced offense that limits transition opportunities and don"t turn the ball over at a high rate.

Edit: Also want to add that they"re consistent, they rarely get into these 6-8min llulls that a lot of teams go into where the other team make a big run and they rarely panic when some things don"t go their way. They have a good offense that can kill momentum when the other team goes on a mini-run.

馬刺有著好的體系。他們的球員球商高，努力，願意交流、執行防守策略、做適當的輪換、在不犯規的前提下阻止對手投籃（聯盟前十的罰球/出手比）、把對手的命中率限制得很低（聯盟前五的限制 對手真實命中率）。他們對三分的防守始終很好，不管是在限制出手次數（聯盟前五，在根據比賽節奏調整後可能排名更高），還是在限制命中率上（聯盟前五）。他們擅於製造失誤（聯盟前五的對手失誤率），還是聯盟前五的籃板大隊。擁有能比其他大多數球隊更好地 保護側翼的格林和倫納德，這對馬刺意義重大。因為很少有球隊擁有可以發起帶球突破的三分手。阿爾德里奇是很好的防守者，戴德蒙不錯但犯規太多。他們同時有著相對平衡的進攻，這限制了對手的攻防轉換機會，同時失誤率也不會太高。

訂正：還想強調一下他們的連貫性。很多球隊會被對手在六到八分鐘內被對手打出一波小高潮，而馬刺則很少陷入這種混亂。當比賽的一些方面不如他們所願時，他們很少恐慌。當對手試圖打出一波小高潮時，他們出色的進攻可以將對手的勢頭平息掉。

[–][SAS] Tim DuncanshawshankCWL 13 指標 18小時前

To be fair, Aldridge is still a pretty good defender. It"s his offense that took a step back. With Dedmon looking like the starting center for the rest of the season, the only spurs player in the starting lineup who"s not a good defensive player is Parker.

平胸而論，阿爾德里奇仍然是很好的防守者。他有所退步的是進攻端。戴德蒙看上去要作為首發中鋒打完賽季餘下的部分，於是不長於防守的馬刺首發球員便只有帕克。

[–][SAS] LaMarcus AldridgeCheesyMightyMo 23 指標 19小時前

I honestly have no fucking idea.

我實在他喵的不知道該怎麼解釋馬刺的防守。

[–]Trail Blazersfuton02 9 指標 18小時前

They probably just keep it simple and emphasize doing it right.

While having elite personnel like Kawhi is a big factor, what I"ve noticed from great teams like the Patriots and the Spurs is that each player mostly always seems to know what their job is in any given situation.

These teams effectively communicate to each player what their specific duties are. They also develop them so that they know their duties so well that they can recall this information quickly during critical moments like at the end of games and during the playoffs.

That"s how you get the "he"s a good team defender" guys, like JJ Reddick or young Tony Parker, and if you have enough of these on a team with maybe a couple "good" defenders and one "elite" defender, you"ve got yourself a top notch defense.

Of course, these players have to meet a certain threshold of physical and intellectual ability and they have to give a shit, because defense is kind of a drag.

他們大概只是把一切簡單化，並著眼於做正確的事。

儘管擁有像倫納德這樣的精英球員很關鍵，但我發現在愛國者和馬刺這樣的偉大球隊中，每名球員幾乎在任何局面下都清楚他們要做什麼。

這些隊伍和每名球員都能高效溝通，告知他們每人特定的職責。他們同時對隊員加以訓練，讓他們對此瞭然於胸，從而在比賽尾聲或季後賽中這般的關鍵時刻，也能快速地回想起自己的任務。

那些有著「他是個好的團隊防守者」評價的球員就是這麼來的，比如雷迪克或者年輕的托尼-帕克。如果在隊伍中有著足夠多這樣的球員，或許再來幾個「好的」防守者外加一個「精英的」防守者，你就得到了一支頂級防守球隊。

當然了，這些球員必須在身體和球商上達標，而且他們必須在乎防守，因為這可是個累活。

[–]Spursleoo88556 10 指標 18小時前

Defense is not just about the inpiduals, because it"s very rare that you can find players capable of having a noticeable impact on def like Kawhi. It"s about all five guys being in the right place and the right time. Even Tony and Patty can stand in someone"s driving lane and force the guy into Dedmon, or take a jump shot or pass it out. It"s about communication and discipline... and when you"re not communicating or you don"t act with discipline, Pop will yell at you like you"re a 10 year-old in front of your teammates, the fans, the reporters, your friends, your parents, your girl, your kids...

So, yeah, basically it"s Pop"s shouting.

防守不只是需要個人能力，因為你很難找到像倫納德這樣能以一己之力在防守端施加明顯影響的球員。防守需要全部五名球員在正確的時間出現在正確的地點。即使是帕克和米爾斯，也能站在 某些人的帶球路線上，從而逼迫他們或者面對戴德蒙，或者跳投，或者傳球。防守需要溝通和紀律...而當你不溝通或者不遵守紀律，波波會把你吼得像是個十歲小屁孩，就當著你的隊友，球迷，記者，你朋友，你父母，你姑娘，你孩子的面...

所以，嗯，防守全靠波波吼。

[–]GusFring8 59 指標 19小時前

Danny Green is a better defender than Klay Thompson.

丹尼-格林比起克萊-湯普森可是個更好的防守者。

[–]rzpieces 40 指標 18小時前

One of the best transition defenders in the league

聯盟中防守攻防轉換最好的球員之一。

[–]Warriorsofay_othello 15 指標 18小時前

I think honestly it"s iggy and him at the top. I remember in the 2013 finals he had like 3 or 4 absolutely incredible stops on Heat fast breaks.

我打心底里相信他和伊戈達拉在這方面是頂級的。我記得在2013年總決賽他有三四次是完全驚為天人地阻止了熱火的快攻。

[–]Spursleoo88556 16 指標 18小時前*

Danny stopped Giannis on fast break twice this season... It"s insane. I honestly don"t think even Kawhi could have done that.

丹尼-格林這賽季兩次阻止了字母哥的快攻...這太瘋狂了。我甚至都不覺得倫納德能做到這一點。

[–][SAS] Tim Duncancanond08 6 指標 18小時前

The system is run shooters off the line and funnel them to the bigs. Pau was a good rim protector in Chicago and he"s carrying that over here because we"re not asking him to do much. The rotations are very good too. Those are practiced to perfection. Throw in Danny"s insane transition D, Kawhi"s incredible instincts and discipline, and a deep bench, and you"ve got yourself a team that will consistently have a positive differential

這個防守體系的運作方式是把射手們驅離三分線，並把他們漏在大個子的面前。加索爾在公牛是個好的護框者，他把這帶到了馬刺，因為我刺不需要他大包大攬做出太多的貢獻。輪轉同樣做得很好。他們靠千錘百鍊才做到完美。加上格林不講理的防攻防轉換，再加上倫納德驚人的直覺和紀律性，外加陣容深度，你就有了一支能夠持續和對手拉開差距的隊伍。

[–]Supersonicsseeker_of_knowledge 5 指標 18小時前

People don"t like it when the Spurs success is ascribed to their "system" but on defense, that is 100% true. The system of rotations they run and the way pop builds the defense turns garbage defensive players like Pau into serviceable ones and decent to good ones into great defenders. It happens seemingly every year.

人們不喜歡把馬刺的成功歸功於他們的「體系」，但在防守端這千真萬確。他們輪轉的方式。波波把像加索爾這樣的防守漏勺調教成可用之材、把比較好的苗子調教成非常好的防守者的方法。這都是體系。而馬刺似乎每年都這樣幹了。

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