貴州茅台馬上到泡沫500 麥格里中國消費品：房地產調控只是「噪音」保持冷靜並平衡您的投資組合

新聞 08-10

什麼奇蹟都可能在中國創造！

一直看國際投行報告公眾號的朋友都知道小編對貴州茅台一直嗤之以鼻！因為小編這樣具愛國熱情的人永遠不能認同喝酒強國！強國只能依靠科技的進步。

但存在的總是合理的，茅台馬上碰到500也是一個事實。你可以嗤之以鼻，人家哪怕是坐莊也好，泡沫也好，總有他的意義。

茅台代表消費

喝酒當然是代表消費，本來這個夏天假期小編是準備減肥的，但各種活動，吃飯的活動似乎比常年多多，雖然不喜歡，不喝酒，但還是喝酒喝過2次茅台、一次葡萄酒，還有幾次可樂的，所以這夏天呢，減肥沒有成功，好像還是長了。

從小編的經歷來看，今年的消費確實似乎是比去年上去了很多。到各大商場看看，周末吃飯排隊的情況比較多，小編在猜的可能性就是以前各大城市都有大排檔，比如上海有黃河路等小吃集市，現在我們偉大的城管大軍把他們摧毀了，各種吃飯活動都到了各大MALL，而新一代的消費者對於消費的要求也不一樣，已經有房的二代們發展不必為消費擔憂，沒房的想想要買房不可能不如好吃好玩吧，這似乎有點放大的口紅效應，反正其他的不行，不如就算了，吃吧。

其實這是金融危機的表現之一，一個賣化妝品的朋友的數據顯示，去年以來，各種化妝品中銷售最好的就是口紅了。

get一個金融知識！——口紅效應

口紅效應

發表於4天前135編輯器

查看:13500回復:135

「口紅效應」是指因經濟蕭條而導致口紅熱賣的一種有趣的經濟現象，也叫「低價產品偏愛趨勢」。在美國，每當在經濟不景氣時，口紅的銷量反而會直線上升。這是因為，在美國

，人們認為口紅是一種比較廉價的奢侈品，在經濟不景氣的情況下，人們仍然會有強烈的消費慾望，所以會轉而購買比較廉價的

奢侈品。口紅作為一種「廉價的非必要之物」，可以對消費者起到一種「安慰」的作用，尤其是當柔軟潤澤的口紅接觸嘴唇的那一刻。再有，經濟的衰退會讓一些人的消費降低，這樣手中反而會出現一些「小閑錢」，正好去買一些「廉價的非必要之物」。

凌通社

5分鐘前：

對於為什麼是消費品，麥格里剛出一個報告，預測了最新的消費股的業績，全面看好！你敢調整你的配置嗎？

Greater China ConsumerKeep calm and balance your portfolio

We provide an earnings preview for 1H17 earnings, refresh our earnings models,and roll over our stock target prices based on our 2018 earnings forecast. We believe 1H17 results will reflect our previous bullish view ( Greater China Consumer - Long time, no see) that consumer discretionary earnings outperformconsumer staples.

基本總結：

Discretionary up,

We raise our average 1H17 consumer discretionary earnings forecast by 11.4% on the back of a strong top line and operating leverage. We expect discretionary names will deliver 22.4% earnings growth for 1H17 and our numbers are 4.3% higher than consensus, as they will have a higher chance of an earnings beat.

Gold jewellery and sportswear names remain in the earnings upward revision cycle, in particular gold jewellery retailers. OEM companies and home appliances are mixed. The manufacturing names with high athleisure exposure could fare better than those exposed to department store customers. For home appliances, we still believe the home appliance companies could deliver strong earnings growth, while retailers still suffer from channel shifting headwinds.

And Staples down

We expect consumer staples will continue to see gross margin headwinds from high raw material costs and transportation costs. Hence, we lower our earnings forecast by an average of 9.2% and 1.0% for 1H17 and 2017. Our staples 2017 earnings forecast are 7.3% lower than consensus. Most of the F&B companies are in the destocking cycle or prudent to restock the inventories into the channels except Baijiu and dairy names. Baijiu still benefits from tight supply and the market』s anticipation of an ex-factory price hike, and as a result, we believe revenue in general could grow by double digits for 1H17. Liquid milk resumed growth in 1H17 to high-single or low-teen digits, and IMF is seeing a strong recovery on the low base, one-child policy relaxation benefit and premiumization trend. However, top line growth will not necessarily be reflected in bottom line growth due to a high cost base or one-off expense.

Accumulate in 2H17 if share price shows volatility

We maintain our bullish view on China consumer given that the sector is going through an earnings growth cycle and FCF is improving. Going into 2H17, we expect consumer discretionary will see higher share price volatility given that growth is cycling into a high base and given market concerns about the wealth effect of property tightening. However, we view this as short-term noise and would use any share price correction to accumulate names in the consumer sector.

Last year, we preferred consumer discretionary to consumer staples, but now we suggest investors maintain a well-balanced position in both consumer discretionary and staples.

? In consumer discretionary, we are more selective and like the lagging plays with attractive valuations. Prada, Luk Fook, Chow Sang Sang, Lifestyle, Wynn Macau and Galaxy are our preferred picks.

? In consumer staples, we like Sun Art, WH Group, Tingyi, UPC and Yihai.

? For A-shares, we suggest CITS, Robam, Lao Feng Xiang and Shuanghui.